Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Gerard's avatar

Ok, this is great like every other article you've been writing these weeks, but my inner economist (and one particularly passionate about Argentina’s never-ending economic experiments) can’t help but make a few observations:

1) I don’t think describing the situation as “prices changing so quickly” is quite accurate when it comes to Argentina nowadays, especially given the country’s historical (and recent) context in this regard. While there are still some relative price adjustments happening, particularly in Buenos Aires, where regulated prices were lagging far behind their real levels, both volatility (rapid price fluctuations) and dispersion (different prices for the same item just a block away) have really plummeted last year compared to the chaos I witnessed in Buenos Aires in 2022 and 2023.

2) On poverty: yes, technically poverty might have risen to affect half the population, but it’s a bit misleadng. The big inflation shock of the first months, driven by the last government’s massive monetary stimulus, exposed the reality that had been hidden under the rug. However, poverty nowcasts from well-known and not particularly pro-government economists show that poverty levels are already below the last numbers published by the Fernández administration. This makes sense, especially given the sharp decline in inflation. And I don’t want to fuel Milei’s megalomania, but if he manages to pull this off, it will definitely go down in economic history books.

3) Regarding a comment from Bárbara Vallejos (is there a way to tag here?): the "indices" are from 2024 (and now 2025), not from 2004. While the weights used to construct the "indices" are from 2004, it really doesn't affect the index that much and they’re useful for following the trend (which is what we’re trying to capture), since are the same ones that have been used in recent years. Adjusting them now wouldn’t really makes sense from a statistical point of view.

We shouldn’t forget that inflation is an average, not just of different prices but also of different regions. It may be true that people in Buenos Aires are bearing the brunt more, given that regulated prices were lower there, but that doesn’t mean the inflation index is useless or doesn’t reflect the broader reality.

Expand full comment
girlbossgaslight3000's avatar

Esta muy bueno el articulo, quizás me hace ruido el ''buenos aires budget friendly 2023'' la realidad es que era budget friendly para el que ganaba en dolares mas que todo, por eso era el destino soñado, pero la gran mayoría ganábamos en pesos y la inflación también nos estaba destrozando. Era una burbuja que en cualquier momento iba a explotar (y lo hizo)

Expand full comment
14 more comments...

No posts